Saudi Arabia Leads OPEC+ in Plan to Boost Oil Production, Punishes Members Who Didn’t Follow Rules: Report
According to a Reuters report, OPEC+ (a group of oil-producing countries led by Russia) decided on Thursday to increase oil production. Three sources said Saudi Arabia pushed for this to punish countries that were not following the group’s rules.
Increasing Oil Production
Sources said Saudi Arabia may not change its decision to boost oil production, even if oil prices go down. The reason is that Saudi Arabia is upset with Kazakhstan and other countries for producing more oil than agreed.
This decision is a big change from Saudi Arabia’s usual policy over the past five years, where they supported cutting production to keep prices stable. For months, Saudi Arabia had been asking Kazakhstan and Iraq to follow the agreed production limits. They even warned that they would increase their own output if others didn’t cooperate.
But Kazakhstan kept raising its oil output, especially with help from big companies like Chevron and ExxonMobil. Iraq also didn’t act quickly to make up for its past overproduction.
Last month, OPEC+ slightly raised oil production, which was unexpected. This move was seen as a warning to countries that were producing too much. Now, with overproduction continuing, Saudi Arabia pushed OPEC+ to release 411,000 extra barrels per day into the market in May—three times more than expected.
One OPEC+ source said they might not reduce this increase even if prices fall below $60 per barrel. Another source said Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman warned that if countries don’t stick to their targets, more production increases will follow.
All three sources said this is not a price war—at least not yet.
Key Quote
“Trump will be happy with lower prices. But U.S. oil companies might be worried, as they may now doubt if OPEC+ will always support higher prices,” said Helima Croft from the Royal Bank of Canada, according to Reuters.
Oil Price Forecast
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil dropped 6.92% on Saturday, reaching $62.32 per barrel—its lowest price since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021. The price drop was caused by OPEC+ increasing production, new U.S. tariffs introduced by Trump, and China’s response with its own tariffs.
On Thursday, Goldman Sachs lowered its oil price forecast for December 2025. It now expects Brent crude to be $66 per barrel and WTI to be $62—both $5 less than earlier estimates. The drop is due to two main risks: growing trade tensions and a rise in OPEC+ oil supply.
For 2026, Goldman Sachs expects Brent to average $62 and WTI $59—down 9% and 6.3% from earlier forecasts. The firm also lowered its estimate for oil demand growth this year from 900,000 barrels per day to 600,000. For 2026, it expects demand to rise by 700,000 barrels per day.
Published: 8th April 2025
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